The dollar, rates and elections: what changed in October 2026 for buying US land
October brought news that matters to anyone in Latin America thinking about buying land in the US: Brazil's election, a moving dollar, a US rate hike and an Arkansas law that raises questions. Here is what changes and what does not.
By Francisco Cortés Santolalla 5 min read
Summary: what changed, and for whom
This note is dated 16 October 2026 and we will update it after 25 October. For buyers in Brazil, the key is the exchange rate. For buyers in Argentina, inflation and access to dollars. For everyone, US interest rates and the Arkansas law. If you are new here, start with how to buy land in the USA.
What happened to the dollar after Brazil's first round?
It fell. At the official rate, the dollar went from R$5.21 on 1 October to R$4.97 on 6 October, two days after the first round. By 15 October it was back at R$5.05.
According to Agência Brasil, Flávio Bolsonaro came first with 47.03% of valid votes and Lula second with 45.16%, and the runoff is on 25 October. The dollar figures are the PTAX sell rate from the Banco Central do Brasil. The chart covers all of 2026.
| Date | Reais per dollar |
|---|---|
| Jan 2 | R$ 5.44 |
| Feb 2 | R$ 5.26 |
| Mar 2 | R$ 5.20 |
| Apr 1 | R$ 5.16 |
| May 4 | R$ 4.96 |
| Jun 1 | R$ 5.03 |
| Jul 1 | R$ 5.20 |
| Aug 3 | R$ 5.07 |
| Sep 1 | R$ 5.16 |
| Oct 1 | R$ 5.21 |
| Oct 6 | R$ 4.97 |
| Oct 15 | R$ 5.05 |
How much is a USD 15,000 lot in reais today?
As of 15 October 2026, about R$75,782, against R$81,558 at the 2 January rate. That is R$5,776 less, close to 7%. The dollar price did not change: what changed is how many reais you need.
The table runs the numbers for the full price, the down payment and each instalment of the 24-payment plan. They use each day's official rate, before any exchange fees.
| Item | 2 Jan 2026 (R$5.4372) | 15 Oct 2026 (R$5.0521) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lot paid in full, USD 15,000 | R$81,558 | R$75,782 | R$5,776 less |
| Down payment, USD 3,000 | R$16,312 | R$15,156 | R$1,156 less |
| Each payment, USD 500 | R$2,719 | R$2,526 | R$193 less |
Can the dollar rise again after 25 October?
Yes, it can rise or fall, and no one can tell you which. On the dates in the chart, the official 2026 rate ranged from R$4.96 to R$5.44. A purchase should not hinge on an exchange-rate forecast.
The honest approach is to look at the range, not guess the next number. If you pay in instalments, each one is paid at that month's rate, which spreads the effect over two years, for better and for worse.
If you live in Brazil, the guide for buyers in Brazil explains the process in Portuguese.
What did the Federal Reserve decide, and why does it matter?
On 16 September 2026 the Federal Reserve raised its rate by 0.25 points, to a range of 3.75 to 4%. 30-year mortgages average 7.40%. For a foreign buyer, US credit becomes even more expensive and harder to reach.
The decision is in the Federal Reserve statement, and the mortgage rate in Freddie Mac's weekly survey for 15 October. The next meeting is on 27 and 28 October.
Our payment plans do not depend on those rates: payments are fixed in dollars and paid directly to the seller, with no banks.
And in Argentina, what changed?
September inflation was 1.9% for the month and 33.4% over twelve months, according to INDEC. Since April 2025, individuals can buy dollars without prior central bank approval, which makes paying in dollars simpler.
The figures come from the INDEC report for October and the central bank's Communication A 8226. For the rest of the purchase, see the FAQ.
Can Chileans, Argentines or Brazilians buy land in Arkansas?
Yes. The Arkansas foreign-ownership law bars farmland to citizens of a federal list of countries, such as China, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea and Russia. Chile, Argentina and Brazil are not on that list.
Act 636 of 2023, tightened by Act 811 of 2025, defines a prohibited buyer by the federal ITAR country list. It also applies to farmland outside city limits, and Cherokee Village has been an incorporated city since 1998. The table shows who it affects.
| Citizenship | On the federal list? | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Chile, Argentina, Brazil | No | You can buy with no special restrictions |
| China, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, Russia, among others | Yes | Cannot hold farmland in Arkansas |
| Dual US citizens | Not applicable | Act 811 exempts anyone who is also a US citizen |
The issue is growing nationwide: according to the University of Arkansas, states with no restrictions on foreign ownership fell from 36 in 2022 to 18 in 2026. If you hold another citizenship, tell us on a video call before you reserve.
What does not change
None of this news changes the basics. Land earns no income and gives no visa, as we explain in does property give you residency?. Its value can rise or fall, and we do not promise appreciation. When a foreign owner sells, the buyer generally withholds 15% of the price toward taxes.
For the advantages and limits in full, read the pros and cons of investing in land and investing abroad.
What to do with this information
If you were already weighing a purchase, this month's news does not change the price or the terms: USD 15,000, or USD 3,000 down and 24 payments of USD 500. You can hold a lot for USD 100 for 10 days while you decide. See the available lots or where they are on the map.
Frequently asked questions
When is Brazil's runoff?
Sunday 25 October 2026, between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
Does the lot price change with the dollar?
No. The price is fixed in dollars: USD 15,000. What changes is how much you pay in your own currency.
Does the US rate hike affect my payments?
No. Payments are fixed in dollars and paid directly to the seller, with no banks and no variable rate.
Can a Venezuelan buy a lot in Arkansas?
The Arkansas law restricts farmland outside cities for citizens of countries like Venezuela. If that is your case, ask us before you reserve.
Updated October 21, 2026
